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Britain Now Has 'Crisis' Flu Epidemic
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/000108/2/d8f8.html
Jan 8, 2000
Britain's flu crisis is now at epidemic levels, according to the Government's
Chief Medical Officer. Professor Liam Donaldson said that 300
people in every 100,000 now have the bug, and described Britain as being
in the grip of a "serious epidemic". The scale of the problem is thought
to be much greater than statistics suggest because of the thousands of
people calling the helpline NHS Direct - thus bypassing surgeries
- and using drop-in health centres.
Prof Donaldson
said there were probably twice as many people suffering from flu as official
figures indicated, and that it had hit "epidemic proportions". "There's
a hidden element to this epidemic. We feel it's a lot higher and climbing.
We think we are in for the big one," he told The Sunday Telegraph.
He added that
there was also under-reporting of the outbreak because many "spotter" surgeries
used to compile flu statistics were closed over the holiday. A Department
of Health spokeswoman said the official statistics showed there were currently
144 people in every 100,000 suffering from flu. As the usual gauge of an
epidemic was 400 people in every 100,000, she said, the flu crisis was
therefore not being officially treated as an epidemic by the Government.
But she added:
"Professor Donaldson is happy to stick by his version that this is an epidemic.
He believes it is many more than 144 per 100,000. "It is very confusing
and it depends on which definition you choose. Professor Donaldson has
looked at his graph and said it is a serious epidemic."
_____
Britain
Has DOUBLE The Number Of Reported Flu Cases
By Jon Craig
- Political Editor
http://www.lineone.net/express/00/01/09/news/n0200flu-d.html
1-9-00
Britain's flu
crisis is at epidemic levels and twice as bad as shown by official figures.
The Government's
Chief Medical Officer, Professor Liam Donaldson, yesterday admitted
that 300 people in every 100,000 now have flu - and the number is
rising.
Despite
ministers' claims to the contrary, he said the reality is that Britain
IS in the grip of a "serious epidemic". The millennium is partly
to blame for the severity of the outbreak because people have been celebrating
in big groups.
The full extent
of the bug's hold on the nation - there are now nearly 200,000 victims,
making it the worst outbreak in 10 years - was revealed by Prof Donaldson
after the NHS faced criticism over
a desperate shortage of intensive care beds. He told the Sunday Express
exclusively that he was speaking out not only to show how bad the situation
is, but also to claim that, despite the mounting pressure, the NHS is coping
as best it can.
Prof Donaldson
said the true toll is more than double the 144 cases per 100,000 people
shown in figures published by the Royal College of General Practitioners
on Thursday.
It is the highest
recent figure since 1989-90, nearly double the average in the past decade
and five times the number two winters ago. The worst ever was a worldwide
epidemic in 1918-19 which killed 40 million people.
Prof Donaldson
said the official figures are wrong because they only include people who
have been to their doctor and not those who rang the NHS Direct helpline
or treated themselves.
He said: "It's
a much higher level this year than normal and much higher than the official
figures suggest. My estimate is that it's in the ballpark of 300 per 100,000
and we may see a few weeks before it peaks.
"I don't think
we have hit the peak yet. I don't think it will get up to the 600 figure
of 1989-90. That was a massive epidemic. But it's extremely serious. It's
the second worst year I have seen in nearly 30 years in medicine."
He said this
year's virus, which originated in Australia, was particularly virulent
and hit old people hardest. Codenamed Sydney, some doctors believe it may
have been brought to Britain by Australian rugby supporters attending last
year's World Cup. Prof Donaldson said: "The millennium has made a difference,
too. Influenza spreads like wildfire. In conditions where you get lots
of people together it would tend to spread more rapidly."
The Department
of Health defines a flu epidemic as 400 cases per 100,000. But asked if
Britain is in the grip of an epidemic, Prof Donaldson said: "It's a question
of definition. But you've got to call it a serious
epidemic because the numbers are high and there's a hidden element, due
to the calls to NHS Direct and people looking after themselves."
Despite criticism
of a shortage of beds and allegations of patients being treated in car
parks and being sent to Calais, Prof Donaldson said the NHS was coping
remarkably well under very difficult circumstances. But he admitted: "We
have got to make a bigger push on vaccination in future. It's not 100 per
cent effective, it's more a case of protecting vulnerable people.
"But we need
to look at the organisation of vaccination, such as sending reminders to
people. There's enough vaccine out there."
Prof Donaldson
also appealed to flu sufferers to ring NHS Direct rather than their GP
or hospital.
He also had
some advice for sufferers: "It's not a very pleasant thing, but it's something
that clears up. You need to go to bed and take plenty of drinks and paracetamol
and rest until you get better.
Unless you feel you are getting a lot worse and very ill with complications,
that's the approach to take rather than dialling for an ambulance or contacting
your doctor."
Backing Prof
Donaldson, John Chisholm of the British Medical Association, said:
"GPs have been seeing large numbers of patients with influenza-like illnesses
over the Christmas and millennium period and since. It has created a considerable
surge in demand.
"Many of the
patients that GPs have been seeing are more unwell and ill for longer than
expected and some have required hospital attention. "Despite the heavy
demands on GPs' services, GPs and hospitals are coping well with the demands
placed on them."
(Note - Let's assume a scientist somewhere has the ability to
create, or graft onto, a fast-spreading influenza virus the genetic material
which will begin to produce a deadly toxin within the infected person that
would be fatal to the infected victim within a day or two. That technology
has, in fact, existed for 10-20 years. Now, consider how fast a flu epidemic
travels...like this one. It would only take one madman with a genetically-altered
flu virus to wipe out most of the world's population in a matter of weeks.
-Jeff Rense)
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